EV purchase intention in Italy, Germany, France, and Denmark: Comparative analysis after the approval of the 2035 ban

The ban on the sale of all vehicles emitting greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, approved by the European Parliament, calls for a faster uptake of EVs (Electric Vehicles), which represent only 2.2% of all EU circulating cars in 2022. An understanding of the reasons underlying the low diffusion of e-mobility in the EU suggests performing a comparative study that explores factors influencing the EV purchase intention of representative samples of the Italian, French, German, and Danish populations. Comparative studies on EV markets, which are not so widespread in the literature, enable the comparison of purchase intentions among consumers from different geographical and cultural areas. This study focuses on four European countries because the existing literature on EVs predominantly addresses non-European markets (China, India, USA, and emerging countries from other continents), making it challenging to generalize findings to developed European countries. These countries were selected due to their diverse political and socioeconomic characteristics and varying rates of EV adoption. Nevertheless, all of them will ban the sales of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) by 2035 and have decided not to anticipate this deadline. The theoretical framework employed is the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), frequently used to study consumers characteristics in the EV market. In our research, we employed an expanded version of the TPB, which, in addition to studying the sociopsychological components, also takes into consideration environmental concern and moral norms. Moreover, in our research we added three other dimensions to the analysis: sociodemographic variables, knowledge (consumer awareness about EVs characteristics) and mobility habits of individuals. Data were collected through an online questionnaire administered to a total sample of 3954 respondents, representing potential buyers of electric cars in these four countries. Data from the Theory of Planned Behavior were reduced through a factorial analysis that revealed three factors: usefulness, which corresponds to the beliefs that EVs provide economic and environmental advantages; mandatory changes in driving habits, which refers to the negative attitude towards changing mobility habits to embrace e-mobility, and perceived purchase control, which indicates the perception of potential consumers about being informed regarding the available models of EVs, the presence of incentives, the purchase cost, and the ease of maintenance. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses conducted on these three components, as well as on other selected variables ( sociodemographic variables, mobility habits, and knowledge ), show that EV purchase intention is largely affected by sociopsychological factors. Specifically, usefulness drives purchase intention, whereas mandatory changes in driving habits reduce it. The survey shows that consumers’ resistance to adopting a new way of organizing their personal mobility undermines the advantages they nevertheless acknowledge for EVs. The most significant result of the comparative analysis concerns the findings relating to Danish respondents. Although Denmark is one of the European countries with the greatest sensitivity to environmental issues and a higher EV diffusion, the results show resistance to changing driving habits, and the degree of knowledge is negatively correlated with the intention to purchase EVs. In other words, these results suggest that EVs are not perceived as a truly pollution-free transport solution, even in Denmark, where e-mobility encounters lower barriers and is particularly widespread. The contribution of the paper, from a theoretical point of view, is twofold. Firstly, it provides one of the few studies that compare European countries that differ in cultural and socio-economic terms, yet homogeneous in terms of the legislation to which they are subjected. Secondly, it confirms the utility of using an extended version of the TPB in e-mobility studies, while also highlighting the importance of integrating sociopsychological variables into an overall picture of elements influencing EV purchase intention. In our paper, for example, the results related to the knowledge take on particular significance. The practical implications for European companies and governments are more complex to deduce directly from the findings. However, it can be argued that the discontent revealed by the analysis, even in countries at the forefront of e-mobility adoption (such as Denmark), combined with the continuous loss of competitiveness of the European automotive industry, as evidenced by recent market data, suggests that pursuing sustainable mobility solely under the current electric technological standard could push the European automotive sector into an irreversible crisis. Therefore, it is necessary to promptly assessing the opportunity to support a plurality of non-polluting and environmentally sustainable technological standards.