The effect of wolves on the exit and voicing exit of Swiss mountain farmers

Wolves are perceived as a threat by small ruminant farmers in Switzerland. In this study, we examined whether there is an association between exit from small ruminant farming and wolf prevalence. We drew on Hirshman's “exit, voice, and loyalty” theory to shed light on (1) farmers' exit strategies in the past and (2) famers' voice on future intentions of exiting (“voicing exit”), when dealing with wolves. Using farm panel data from Swiss small ruminant farmers (13,954 regular farms and 3758 Alpine summer farms), we first applied a mixed-effect logistic regression model to estimate famers' exit rate from small ruminant farming. We then conducted a survey among farmers (n = 928) to show correlations between the farmers' burden caused by wolves and intention of how long to continue farming and keeping small ruminants. We differentiated between regular “all-year” farms and Alpine summer farms. We were able to show that wolves, among other important factors, played a small but significant role in the exit from small ruminant farming, mainly on farms with small herds. The survey results also revealed that farmers exposed to greater wolf pressure were more likely to voice potential exit from small ruminant farming. In general, there is a real threat that farmers will exit small ruminant farming because of wolves. We highlight that farmers' exit from small ruminant farming should be seriously taken into account for further wolf management decisions.