China's dietary changes would increase agricultural blue and green water footprint

Agriculture accounts for 61 % of fresh water consumption in China. Although population and diet have a significant impact on water consumption, little is known about the reasons for and extent of their influence. Changes in the blue and green water footprint of 20 agricultural sectors in 31 Chinese provinces were estimated in 5 scenarios by applying the environmentally expanded multi-regional input-output model. The water footprint network is strongly interconnected, with over 50 % of the provinces characterized as net importers of the blue water footprint, 70 % of the total blue and green water footprint imports in developed provinces, and 65 % of the total blue and green water footprint exports in developing provinces, with the flow distribution driven and dominated by economically developed provinces. The findings also highlighted that the impact of population change on the water footprint is insignificant, contributing 0.51 % and 5.78 % to the reduction of the water footprint in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The impact of simultaneous changes in the population and dietary structure on the water footprint was higher than population changes and lower than dietary structure changes. The main force driving changes in the water footprint was changes in the dietary structure, which resulted in a two-fold effect on the water footprint. First, it has increased the blue and green water footprint by 33 % and 12 %, respectively, thus aggravating the coercive impact on water resources on the production side. Second, it has led to a change in the main contributing sectors for the blue and green water footprint from cereals to fruits, vegetables, and potatoes. Therefore, when the population is changing and optimizing its dietary structures, a greater focus must be placed on threats and pressures to water resources. This will result in better scientific management and more efficient use of water resources.