Multi-scenario simulation and risk analysis of a water-energy coupled system: A case study of Wuhan City, China

Water and energy are essential resources to guarantee the normal functioning of human society. The intimately and highly interwoven relationship between water and energy in contemporary times has led to the manifestation of its joint risks. In this study, a framework composed of system dynamics model, scenario simulation, and copula analysis is constructed for the prediction of the water-energy coupled system. The water and energy demand from 2001 to 2035 under four scenarios was simulated and the joint risk of water and energy was appraised with Wuhan city as the research object. The results show that: (1) The relative error between the statistical and simulated values in the system dynamics model is basically within 10%, indicating a good fitting effect of the model. (2) The joint risk of water and energy risk in Wuhan peaks in 2025 under the business-as-usual scenario, and the simulation results under different scenarios suggest that the combination of increased expenditure in energy saving and environmental protection, and industrial structure optimization effectively mitigates the joint risk of water and energy, while ensuring economic vitality and demographic scale. (3) This study provides holistic and valuable insights for policy makers to bolster the sustainable development of Wuhan and serves as a stepping stone for future exploration of the water-energy coupling relationship and its joint risk analysis.