Prediction of urban residential energy consumption intensity in China toward 2060 under regional development scenarios

With global commitments to carbon neutrality, restraining the rapid growth of building energy consumption becomes crucial. Several building energy consumption predictions for China were conducted, but the regional heterogeneity and urban residentials’ special characteristics were not considered in these models. Thus, a “bottom-up” physical model with regional scenario assumptions was proposed for existing, newly-built, and renovated urban residential energy consumption prediction in five building thermal zones in China. Large-scale investigations were conducted for regional energy-use status and energy-use-related advanced technology development status both in China and developed countries. Regarding building envelope thermal properties, types, possession quantities, and performance of energy-use equipment, occupant energy-use behavior, and renewable energy utilization, Benchmark (B), Medium control (M), and Strict control (S) scenarios were assumed considering the spatial differences among each zone and temporal difference between 2020 and 2060. Results showed fluctuating trends, but all zones peak in 2035 under the B scenario, and before 2025 under the M and S scenarios. The intensity for newly-built urban residentials under the S scenarios in Severe cold, Cold, Hot Summer and Cold Winter, Hot Summer and Warm Winter, and Mild zones by 2060 are 4.07 kgce/(m 2 ·a), 6.8 kgce/(m 2 ·a), 6.53 kgce/(m 2 ·a), 6.5 kgce/(m 2 ·a), and 5.21 kgce/(m 2 ·a), respectively.