Spatiotemporal dynamics of social vulnerability to natural hazards: Trends and projections from 2002 to 2030 in northwestern Iran

The significant economic and human toll of natural hazards underscores the need for robust management strategies, particularly county- and community-level vulnerability initiatives to mitigate the devastating impacts of these natural hazards on vulnerable populations. Here, we assessed and quantified the social vulnerability to natural hazards, specifically floods, in 17 northwestern Iran counties from 2002 to 2022, with projections for 2030. We modeled and mapped flood vulnerability, then used expert opinion to weigh exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators, forming a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). Experts identified population density, age demographics, and healthcare infrastructure as the most important variables contributing to social vulnerability to natural hazards. Spatiotemporal analysis showed a 20-year upward SoVI trend for 24 % of counties, while 76 % decreased. Projections for 2030 suggested a decrease in vulnerability for 65 % of counties, with an increase for the remaining 35 %. Our study revealed that social vulnerability is context-specific and warrants individual assessments across various counties to effectively address the disparities in vulnerability indicators among different socio-economic sectors. While we primarily concentrated on a specific province in Iran, the findings and strategic insights hold global relevance, potentially enhancing the efficacy of social vulnerability assessments worldwide.