Evaluating the recycling potential and economic benefits of end-of-life power batteries in China based on different scenarios

Recycling of end-of-life (EOL) power batteries has emerged as a vital strategy to mitigate resource depletion and minimize environmental pollution. This study utilizes the Stanford model and scenario analysis to project the EOL and reuse quantities of electric vehicle (EV) batteries in China from 2023 to 2035. Additionally, this study examines the potential for recycling and the economic advantages associated with echelon utilization and recovery utilization of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Results show that: (1) In 2035, China's EOL LIBs volume will potentially reach 11.77 million tons. And the battery reused volume will be up to 4.17 million tons, which can meet 55 % of the demand. (2) In 2035, up to 1468 Gwh of batteries could be allocated for echelon utilization, yielding economic benefits of $40.5 billion in load shifting and peak shaving, $25.1 billion in China Tower savings, and 4.57 million new batteries saved in low-speed vehicles. (3) Among the critical materials recycled in batteries, cobalt(Co) holds the highest economic value at $8.2 billion, followed by lithium(Li) at $4.3 billion. (4) The amount of nickel (Ni), Co, manganese(Mn), and graphite recovered in 2035 could satisfy battery manufacturing requirements. This study offers guidance to government and enterprises in formulating a circular economy strategy for battery recycling and processing.