Where is the deep sustainability turn most likely to emerge? An Industrial Modernity Index

The current interlinked and escalating socio-ecological crises have necessitated a deep sustainability turn, requiring the rethinking of many currently taken-for-granted assumptions, norms, and practices related to the natural environment, science, and technology. This challenge raises the question of where a shift of such magnitude is more likely to occur. This paper addresses this question by developing a new Industrial Modernity Index to estimate structural constraints to major transformative change in different countries. Drawing on the recent Deep Transitions framework, we use a multi-dimension (ideas, institutions, practices) and multi-domain (natural environment, science and technology) approach, combining data on attitudes towards the natural environment, beliefs about science and technology, institutional quality, environmental regulations, material input, energy supply, land use, vehicle density, scientific publications, and patenting into a new composite indicator. In contrast to many established sustainability and welfare metrics, our results from 63 countries show that the top-performing group cross-cuts the Global North/South divide. These countries may thus form the core experimentation and learning space for the possibly emerging major sustainability turn, the Second Deep Transition.