Estimating the risk of recurrent invasive pneumococcal disease in Australia, 1991–2016

Individuals who experience an initial episode of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) are at increased risk of recurrent episodes. However, the magnitude of risk has not been well-quantified in the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine era. Individuals with a previous episode of IPD are not commonly identified as a high-risk group in vaccination guidelines. Australian residents with at least one case of IPD between 1991 and 2016 were identified using routine public health surveillance data which included identified IPD risk factors. Incidence of recurrent IPD was calculated from 2001 onwards (after IPD became nationally notifiable) using time-to-event analyses with individuals contributing person-time at risk of recurrence if they survived greater than 14 days after initial episode onset. From 1991 to 2016 there were 28,809 IPD episodes in 28,218 individuals. A total of 512 (1.8%) persons experienced 591 recurrent episodes. From 2001 to 2016 the incidence of recurrent IPD was 216.2 per 100,000 person-years, 27 times greater than the population rate of primary IPD during this period (8.0 per 100,000 population per year). Between 2011 and 2016, more than one-quarter of individuals experiencing recurrence had no IPD risk factors identified at first episode. There is substantially increased risk of recurrent IPD after an initial episode. At least one-quarter of those with recurrent episodes have no identified risk factors at the initial episode. Given the potential preventability of future episodes, those with a previous IPD episode should be identified as a high-risk group and receive pneumococcal vaccination.