Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Türkiye

The demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in Türkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in Türkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.