Predicting protein stability changes upon mutation using a simple orientational potential

Motivation: Structure-based stability prediction upon mutation is crucial for protein engineering and design, and for understanding genetic diseases or drug resistance events. For this task, we adopted a simple residue-based orientational potential that considers only three backbone atoms, previously applied in protein modeling. Its application to stability prediction only requires parametrizing 12 amino acid-dependent weights using cross-validation strategies on a curated dataset in which we tried to reduce the mutations that belong to protein–protein or protein–ligand interfaces, extreme conditions and the alanine over-representation. Results: Our method, called KORPM, accurately predicts mutational effects on an independent benchmark dataset, whether the wild-type or mutated structure is used as starting point. Compared with state-of-the-art methods on this balanced dataset, our approach obtained the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest correlation between predicted and experimental DDG measures, as well as better receiver operating characteristics and precision-recall curves. Our method is almost anti-symmetric by construction, and it performs thus similarly for the direct and reverse mutations with the corresponding wild-type and mutated structures. Despite the strong limitations of the available experimental mutation data in terms of size, variability, and heterogeneity, we show competitive results with a simple sum of energy terms, which is more efficient and less prone to overfitting.