Effects of warming and fishing on Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) size structure in the Mid-Atlantic rotationally closed areas

The Atlantic sea scallop supports one of the most lucrative fisheries on the Northeast U.S. shelf. Understanding the interannual variability of sea scallop size structure and associated drivers is critically important for projecting the response of population dynamics to climate change and designing coherent fishery management strategies. In this study, we constructed time series of sea scallop size structures in three rotationally closed areas in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) and decomposed their total variances using the variance partitioning method. The results suggested that the interannual variances in sea scallop size structures were associated more with thermal stress in regions shallower than 60 m but more with fishing mortality in regions deeper than 60 m. The percentages of small (large) size groups increased (decreased) with elevated thermal stress and fishing pressure. We adopted a scope for growth model to build a mechanistic link between temperature and sea scallop size. Model results suggested a gradual decrease in maximum shell height and habitat contraction under warming. This study quantified the relative contributions of thermal stress and fishing mortality to the variance of scallop size structure and discussed the need for adaptive management plans to mitigate potential socioeconomic impacts caused by size structure changes.