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Cycles, trends, and residual variation in the Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus) recruitment series and their relationship with the environment

ICES Journal of Marine Science, ISSN: 1054-3139, Vol: 69, Issue: 5, Page: 739-750
2012
  • 53
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 65
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    53
    • Citation Indexes
      50
    • Policy Citations
      3
      • Policy Citation
        3
  • Captures
    65

Article Description

Recruitment variability is an important component of the dynamics of Iberian sardine (Sardine pilchardus). Since 2006, poor recruitment has led to a decrease in stock biomass, the latest in a series of such crises for sardine fisheries. Understanding the mechanisms behind recruitment fluctuations has been the objective of many previous studies, and various relationships between recruitment and environmental variables have been proposed. However, such studies face several analytical challenges, including short time-series and autocorrelated data. A new analysis of empirical relationships with environmental series is presented, using statistical methods designed to cope with these issues, including dynamic factor analysis, generalized additive models, and mixed models. Relationships are identified between recruitment and global (number of sunspots), regional (NAOAutumn), and local [winter wind strength, sea surface temperature (SST), and upwelling] environmental variables. Separating these series into trend and noise components permitted further investigation of the nature of the relationships. Whereas the other three environmental variables were related to the trend in recruitment, SST was related to residual variation around the trend, providing stronger evidence for a causal link, possible mechanisms for which are discussed. After the removal of trend and cyclic components, residual variation in recruitment is also weakly related to the previous years spawning-stock biomass. © 2011 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

Bibliographic Details

M. Begoña Santos; Rafael González-Quirós; Isabel Riveiro; José M. Cabanas; Carmela Porteiro; Graham J. Pierce

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Earth and Planetary Sciences; Agricultural and Biological Sciences; Environmental Science

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