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Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes

medRxiv
2020
  • 29
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 0
    Captures
  • 4
    Mentions
  • 20
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    29
    • Citation Indexes
      28
      • CrossRef
        28
    • Policy Citations
      1
      • Policy Citation
        1
  • Mentions
    4
    • News Mentions
      4
      • News
        4
  • Social Media
    20
    • Shares, Likes & Comments
      20
      • Facebook
        20

Most Recent News

Which age group—old or young—should get the COVID-19 vaccine first may depend on timing

When there are many susceptible individuals (left), there are not enough individuals with immunity from previous infection to break up chains of transmission, so their

Article Description

During the COVID-19 pandemic, authorities must decide which groups to prioritise for vaccination. These decision will occur in a constantly shifting social-epidemiological landscape where the success of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like physical distancing requires broad population acceptance. We developed a coupled social-epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Schools and workplaces are closed and re-opened based on reported cases. We used evolutionary game theory and mobility data to model individual adherence to NPIs. We explored the impact of vaccinating 60+ year-olds first; <20 year-olds first; uniformly by age; and a novel contact-based strategy. The last three strategies interrupt transmission while the first targets a vulnerable group. Vaccination rates ranged from 0.5% to 4.5% of the population per week, beginning in January or July 2021. Case notifications, NPI adherence, and lockdown periods undergo successive waves during the simulated pandemic. Vaccination reduces median deaths by 32% − 77% (22% − 63%) for January (July) availability, depending on the scenario. Vaccinating 60+ year-olds first prevents more deaths (up to 8% more) than transmission-interrupting strategies for January vaccine availability across most parameter regimes. In contrast, transmission-interrupting strategies prevent up to 33% more deaths than vaccinating 60+ year-olds first for July availability, due to higher levels of natural immunity by that time. Sensitivity analysis supports the findings. Further research is urgently needed to determine which populations can benefit from using SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to interrupt transmission. AFT

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