Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes
medRxiv
2020
- 29Citations
- 4Mentions
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Example: if you select the 1-year option for an article published in 2019 and a metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019. If you select the 3-year option for the same article published in 2019 and the metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019, 2018 and 2017.
Citation Benchmarking is provided by Scopus and SciVal and is different from the metrics context provided by PlumX Metrics.
Metrics Details
- Citations29
- Citation Indexes28
- CrossRef28
- Policy Citations1
- Policy Citation1
- Mentions4
- News Mentions4
- News4
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Which age group—old or young—should get the COVID-19 vaccine first may depend on timing
When there are many susceptible individuals (left), there are not enough individuals with immunity from previous infection to break up chains of transmission, so their
Article Description
During the COVID-19 pandemic, authorities must decide which groups to prioritise for vaccination. These decision will occur in a constantly shifting social-epidemiological landscape where the success of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like physical distancing requires broad population acceptance. We developed a coupled social-epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Schools and workplaces are closed and re-opened based on reported cases. We used evolutionary game theory and mobility data to model individual adherence to NPIs. We explored the impact of vaccinating 60+ year-olds first; <20 year-olds first; uniformly by age; and a novel contact-based strategy. The last three strategies interrupt transmission while the first targets a vulnerable group. Vaccination rates ranged from 0.5% to 4.5% of the population per week, beginning in January or July 2021. Case notifications, NPI adherence, and lockdown periods undergo successive waves during the simulated pandemic. Vaccination reduces median deaths by 32% − 77% (22% − 63%) for January (July) availability, depending on the scenario. Vaccinating 60+ year-olds first prevents more deaths (up to 8% more) than transmission-interrupting strategies for January vaccine availability across most parameter regimes. In contrast, transmission-interrupting strategies prevent up to 33% more deaths than vaccinating 60+ year-olds first for July availability, due to higher levels of natural immunity by that time. Sensitivity analysis supports the findings. Further research is urgently needed to determine which populations can benefit from using SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to interrupt transmission. AFT
Bibliographic Details
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
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