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Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England.

medRxiv
2021
  • 3
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 0
    Captures
  • 16
    Mentions
  • 4
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    3
    • Policy Citations
      3
      • Policy Citation
        3
  • Mentions
    16
    • News Mentions
      14
      • News
        14
    • Blog Mentions
      2
      • Blog
        2
  • Social Media
    4
    • Shares, Likes & Comments
      4
      • Facebook
        4

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Article Description

Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was first reported to the WHO by South Africa on 24 November 2021 and was declared a variant of concern by the WHO on 26 November 2021. The variant was first detected in the UK on 27 November 2021 and has since been reported in a number of countries globally where it is frequently associated with rapid increase in cases. Here we present analyses of UK data showing the earliest signatures of the Omicron variant and mathematical modelling that uses the UK data to simulate the potential impact of this variant in the UK. In order to account for the uncertainty in transmission advantage, vaccine escape and severity at the time of writing, we carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of these variant characteristics on future risk.

Bibliographic Details

Matt J. Keeling; Ellen Brooks-Pollock; Rob Challen; Leon Danon; Louise Dyson; Julia R. Gog; Laura Guzmán Rincón; Edward M. Hill; Lorenzo Pellis; Jonathan M. Read; Michael J. Tildesley

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Medicine

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