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Extinction risk predictions for the world’s flowering plants to support their conservation

bioRxiv, ISSN: 2692-8205
2023
  • 3
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 0
    Captures
  • 7
    Mentions
  • 13
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    3
    • Citation Indexes
      3
      • CrossRef
        3
  • Mentions
    7
    • News Mentions
      6
      • 6
    • Blog Mentions
      1
      • Blog
        1
  • Social Media
    13
    • Shares, Likes & Comments
      13
      • Facebook
        13

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Article Description

• More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, ~330,000 species). • We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species level predictions. • From our model predictions we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. • Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.

Bibliographic Details

Steven P. Bachman; Matilda J.M. Brown; Tarciso C.C. Leão; Eimear Nic Lughadha; Barnaby E. Walker

Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology; Agricultural and Biological Sciences; Immunology and Microbiology; Neuroscience; Pharmacology, Toxicology and Pharmaceutics

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