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The Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center Operational Definition, Construction, and Real-Time Collaboration

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, ISSN: 1520-0477, Vol: 104, Issue: 3, Page: E542-E562
2023
  • 7
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 16
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    7
    • Citation Indexes
      7
  • Captures
    16

Article Description

The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO), issued operationally from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC), serves the Weather and Water Enterprise and decision-makers with probabilistic guidance and messaging context out to 3 days for excessive rainfall leading to impacts, including flash flooding. Eighty-three percent of all flood-related damages and 39% of all flood-related fatalities reported in Storm Data from 2010 to 2020 occurred in or near an ERO High Risk. Given that a High Risk is issued on only 4% of days, the presence of such risk can serve as an important step in raising situational awareness of a greater likelihood of a damaging and deadly flash flood day. This paper details the operational construction of the ERO at WPC and discusses the role of the ERO in the National Weather Service collaborative forecast process for heavy rainfall. Case studies where the ERO achieved a High Risk are presented for the deadly Montecito, California, flash flood and debris flow (2018) and Hurricane Harvey (2017). More broadly, challenges are highlighted which could be overcome by research to further improve ERO utility.

Bibliographic Details

Patrick C. Burke; Alex Lamers; Gregory Carbin; Mark Klein; Marc Chenard; Michael J. Erickson; Jennifer McNatt; Lance Wood

American Meteorological Society

Earth and Planetary Sciences

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