Analyzing the impact of an MDG-Fund program on childhood malnutrition in Timor-Leste

Background: Timor-Leste’s food insecurity, propelled by political conflicts, a fragile economy and biophysical limitations that characterize mountainous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), is expressed in a high incidence (50%) of stunted children. Hence, the Millennium Development Goals Achievement Fund’s Joint Program’s (MDG-F JP) in 2009 was a timely intervention to reduce prevalence of underweight among under-fives. Since the impact of the program remains largely unclear, the current study investigates the contributions of the MDG-F JP on improving children’s nutritional status in Timor-Leste, in order to inform policymakers on how to make future programs more effective. Methods: Using bivariate analyses and multiple linear regression models we analyzed Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from under-fives in 2009–2010 and 2016, combined with spatially explicit data from geographic information systems (GIS). The analyses generated trends and factors associated with undernutrition, which were used in a quasi-experimental setting to compare districts that received the MDG-F JP with similar districts that did not receive MDG-F JP interventions. Results: A comprehensive set of factors dependent on seasons, locations, and individuals determine undernutrition in Timor-Leste. A positive impact of the MDG-F JP was found for the average severity of wasting, but not for stunting and underweight. Conclusions: The findings reinforce the pressing need for integrated and cross-sectoral programs, aimed especially at agricultural workers, mothers, and children. The agricultural challenge is to sustainably select, produce and conserve higher-yield and nutrient-rich crops, and educational enhancement should be aligned with local practices and research.