Predicting Intimate Partner Violence Recidivism using the Swedish Prison and Probation Service’s Risk-Need-Responsivity Assessment (RNR-A)

The Swedish Prison and Probation Service (SPPS) provides risk-reducing interventions tailored to clients’ recidivism risk, with the intake assessment RNR-A informing sentence plans. This study tested the predictive utility of the RNR-A in a cohort of 3,145 clients (M = 39 years, 2% women) convicted of intimate partner violence (IPV). During 24 months of follow-up, IPV reconvictions (10% overall) increased significantly with each increase in risk level (low, medium, high). Discrimination performance was comparable to similar instruments (AUC range = .59–.68). A high proportion of IPV recidivists were classified as medium-to-high risk (sensitivity range = 87–95%) at the cost of over-inclusion of non-recidivists in these risk levels (specificity range = 13–27%). This study contributes to broader efforts to evaluate the implementation of Bonta and Andrews’ (2017) risk principle in the SPPS and supports the use of the RNR-A to screen out those clients with the least need of IPV-specific intervention. Further instrument development and calibration in combination with the use of in-depth assessments for complex medium-to-high risk cases may increase the potential of effective service delivery, providing intensive and extensive services to clients with the greatest risk and needs.