PlumX Metrics
Embed PlumX Metrics

Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery

SSRN, ISSN: 1556-5068
2020
  • 62
    Citations
  • 11,094
    Usage
  • 97
    Captures
  • 2
    Mentions
  • 42
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    62
    • Citation Indexes
      37
    • Policy Citations
      25
      • Policy Citation
        25
  • Usage
    11,094
    • Abstract Views
      8,831
    • Downloads
      2,263
  • Captures
    97
  • Mentions
    2
    • Blog Mentions
      2
      • Blog
        2
  • Social Media
    42
    • Shares, Likes & Comments
      42
      • Facebook
        42
  • Ratings
    • Download Rank
      13,386

Article Description

We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises: 1968 Flu, SARS (2003), H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), and Zika (2016). Time-series models for a large cross-section of countries indicate that real GDP growth falls by around two percentage points in affected countries relative to unaffected countries in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid, but output is still below pre-shock level five years later. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is significantly greater persistence in female unemployment than male. Moreover, the negative effects of pandemics are economically contagious — indirect effects on own-country GDP from affected trading partners are significant for both the initial GDP decline and the positive bounce back. However, the negative effects on GDP and unemployment are felt less in countries with larger first-year responses in government spending, especially on health care. Our estimates imply that the impact effect of the Covid-19 shock on world GDP growth is approximately four standard deviations worse than the average past pandemic.

Bibliographic Details

Provide Feedback

Have ideas for a new metric? Would you like to see something else here?Let us know