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The Value of Forecast Improvements: Evidence from Advisory Lead Times and Vehicle Crashes

SSRN Electronic Journal
2022
  • 3
    Citations
  • 925
    Usage
  • 1
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    3
    • Policy Citations
      3
      • Policy Citation
        3
  • Usage
    925
    • Abstract Views
      785
    • Downloads
      140
  • Captures
    1
  • Ratings
    • Download Rank
      417,358

Article Description

Significant investments are directed toward improving the accuracy and early availability of forecasts. However, the value of longer lead times on forecasts is unclear. Using data on winter weather advisories and vehicle crashes in the US, I show that advisories with longer lead times reduce crashes, even when they are less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times. Further, marginal benefits do not decrease with lead time. The benefits come from individual and institutional responses. When advisories arrive earlier, people visit fewer places, and snowplow crews intensify the road maintenance operations. These results have policy implications for providing effective forecasts.

Bibliographic Details

Vaibhav Anand

Elsevier BV

Weather; forecasts; advisory; lead time; automobile crashes; risk mitigation; adaptation

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