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The Pendulum Effect: Political Exclusion and Shifting Dominance between Moderate and Radical Factions in Opposition Groups

SSRN, ISSN: 1556-5068
2023
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Article Description

This article analyzes the consequences of political inclusion and exclusion on opposition group moderation and radicalization. To contextualize contradictory arguments in the literature about their relationship, I develop a framework centering the cross-generational reproduction of factional tensions within opposition groups. I argue that political exclusion plays a foundational role in exacerbating tensions between moderates and radicals, helping explain variation in their levels of moderation or radicalization. To assess the theory and move beyond the literature’s heavy focus on Islamists, I compare the Egyptian Islamist, Iraqi Communist, and Palestinian Nationalist movements using unique insights from 73 interviews with activists and extensive participant-observation. I find that a “pendulum” effect exists whereby political exclusion favors moderates, who survive by avoiding confrontation but inevitably fail to effectively challenge regimes. Their failure shifts support to radicals, who begin confronting regimes once again. This research has significant implications for democratization processes and youth-led movements today.

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