Impact of High-Speed Rail on Settlement Intentions of Diverse Migrant Workers: Insights from China

This study investigates the impact of High-Speed Rail (HSR) on the settlement intentions of diverse migrant workers in China. Leveraging data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey, specifically collected from prefecture-level cities between 2014 and 2018, probit and ordered probit models were employed for the analysis. The study reveals compelling findings: the introduction of HSR notably diminishes the settlement intentions of migrant workers. Post-HSR implementation, there is a distinct 3.4% increase in the likelihood of migrant workers intending to leave the city. Furthermore, there is an increase in the likelihood of intending shorter stays: 1-2 years (0.6% increase), 3-5 years (0.5% increase). However, those with intentions to stay longer durations (6-10 years, more than 10 years, or with permanent settlement plans) witness deceased probability. Moreover, the study uncovers nuances in the impact of HSR on settlement intentions, contingent upon workers' and cities' characteristics. Older, less educated, and lower-income migrant workers exhibit reduced settlement intentions following HSR implementation. Conversely, HSR seems to amplify settlement intentions among migrant workers with college or graduate education by 1.7%, while decreasing intentions for those with middle or elementary school education by 4.1%. Different age groups also manifest varying responses; HSR leads to a 3.1% decrease in settlement intentions for workers aged 37 or younger, and a 5.2% decrease for older workers. In addition, city-specific characteristics play a role: smaller cities, closer proximity to megacities or super cities, limited urban public service supply, and lower administrative hierarchy witness a more pronounced increase in migrant worker outflow post-HSR introduction.