The dynamics of alterations and prognostic models of levels of morbidity of urban and rural population of the subject of the Russian Federation

The article presents data of analytical study of morbidity indices of urban and rural population of the Republic of Tatarstan. The dynamics of population morbidity rate in the Republic of Tatarstan is characterized by steady trend of decreasing of indicator and is described by polynomial trend in both absolute and relative indices. The highest rates of increase in population morbidity were mainly observed until 2010. The maximal periods of decreasing or slowdown of rate increasing were characteristic in 2011-2019. In the structure of population morbidity, the highest percentage fell on diseases of respiratory and circulatory systems, injuries, poisoning and some other consequences of external causes impact that was typical both for the Republic of Tatarstan in whole and its rural territories. In general, morbidity rate of urban population was higher than that of rural population. This difference was statistically significant, but growth rate of number of cases in rural territories outstripped growth rate of number of cases in urban territories and was higher than in the Republic of Tatarstan in whole, but was not statistically significant. The medium-term prognosis of dynamics of population morbidity rate in the Republic of Tatarstan in whole demonstrated that, all other things being equal and taking into account current trends, decrease in number of registered patients with diagnosis established for the first time in life can be expected to 2874.2 thousand of population by 2024 (that is less as compared with 2019 level by 242.4 thousand of population, or by 7.8%) and number of registered patients with diagnosis established for the first time in life to 70217.8 per 100 thousand of population (which is less as compared with 2019 level by 9680.8 per 100 thousand of population, or by 12.1%).