Cardiovascular and cancer death rates in the Brazilian population aged 35 to 74 years, 1996-2017

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer are the main causes of death worldwide. These diseases share many risk factors. Control of traditional risk factors for CVD was associated with lower incidence of cancers. Objective: To analyze CVD and cancer mortality rate trends in Brazilian population aged 35-74 years from 1996 to 2017. Methods: Crude and age-adjusted death rate trends were analyzed for all causes of death, CVD, and cancer. Data were obtained from mortality database of the Ministry of Health. Joinpoint Regression Program performed analysis of trends and adjustments in death rates. The degree of changes was determined by the average annual percent change (AAPC). Level of statistical significance was set at p <0.05. Results: Mortality from all causes of death (AAPC=-1.6%; p<0.001), CVD (AAPC=-2.3; p<0.001), ischemic heart disease (IHD) (AAPC=-1.6; p<0.001) and stroke (AAPC=-3.7; p<0.001) declined. Same trends were observed for CVD (p<0.001) in men and women. Death rates from all causes of cancer (AAPC=-0.1; p=0.201), in men (AAPC=-0.1; p=0.193) and in women (AAPC=-0.1; p=0,871) remained unchanged. In 2002, mortality from cancer exceeded the sum of deaths from IHD and stroke. If trends continue, cancer mortality will also exceed mortality from CVD by 2024. In women, death rates from breast, lung and colon cancer increased, and from cervical and gastric cancers decreased. In men, mortality from lung, stomach and esophagus cancer decreased, and from prostate cancer remained unchanged. Conclusion: CVD are currently the leading cause of death in Brazil, but death rates from cancer will exceed those from CVD in a few years.