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DYNAMICS OF A PERIODIC WEST NILE VIRUS MODEL WITH MOSQUITO DEMOGRAPHICS

Communications on Pure and Applied Analysis, ISSN: 1553-5258, Vol: 21, Issue: 11, Page: 3755-3775
2022
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In this paper, we propose a time-delayed model of West Nile virus with periodic extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and mosquito demographics including stage-structure, pair formation and intraspecific competition. We define two quantities R and Rmax for mosquito population and the basic reproduction number R0 for our model. It is shown that the threshold dynamics are determined by these three parameters: (i) if Rmax ≤ 1, the mosquito population will not survive; (ii) if R > 1 and R0 < 1, then WNv disease will go extinct; (iii) if R > 1 and R0 > 1, then the disease will persist. Numerically, we simulate the long-term behaviors of solutions and reveal the influences of key model parameters on the disease transmission. A new finding is that R0 is non-monotone with respect to the fraction of the aquatic mosquitoes maturing into adult male mosquitoes, which can help us implement more effective control strategies. Besides we observe that using the time-averaged EIP has the possibility of underestimating the infection risk.

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