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Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, ISSN: 1607-7938, Vol: 20, Issue: 5, Page: 1947-1969
2016
  • 54
    Citations
  • 0
    Usage
  • 67
    Captures
  • 1
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    54
    • Citation Indexes
      53
      • CrossRef
        40
      • Academic Citation Index (ACI) - airiti
        1
    • Policy Citations
      1
      • 1
  • Captures
    67
  • Mentions
    1
    • News Mentions
      1
      • 1

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Trends in projections of standardized precipitation indices in a future climate in Poland

Marzena Osuch, Renata J. Romanowicz, Deborah Lawrence, and Wai K. Wong Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1947-1969, doi:10.5194/hess-20-1947-2016, 2016 Possible future climate change effects on

Article Description

Possible future climate change effects on dryness conditions in Poland are estimated for six climate projections using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The time series of precipitation represent six different climate model runs under the selected emission scenario for the period 1971–2099. Monthly precipitation values were used to estimate the SPI for multiple timescales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) for a spatial resolution of 25ĝ€km for the whole country. Trends in the SPI were analysed using the Mann–Kendall test with Sen's slope estimator for each grid cell for each climate model projection and aggregation scale, and results obtained for uncorrected precipitation and bias corrected precipitation were compared. Bias correction was achieved using a distribution-based quantile mapping (QM) method in which the climate model precipitation series were adjusted relative to gridded precipitation data for Poland. The results show that the spatial pattern of the trend depends on the climate model, the timescale considered and on the bias correction. The effect of change on the projected trend due to bias correction is small compared to the variability among climate models. We also summarize the mechanisms underlying the influence of bias correction on trends in precipitation and the SPI using a simple example of a linear bias correction procedure. In both cases, the bias correction by QM does not change the direction of changes but can change the slope of trend, and the influence of bias correction on SPI is much reduced. We also have noticed that the results for the same global climate model, driving different regional climate model, are characterized by a similar pattern of changes, although this behaviour is not seen at all timescales and seasons.

Bibliographic Details

Marzena Osuch; Renata J. Romanowicz; Deborah Lawrence; Wai K. Wong

Copernicus GmbH

Environmental Science; Earth and Planetary Sciences

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