PlumX Metrics
SSRN
Embed PlumX Metrics

Do Sentiment Indicators Help to Assess and Predict Actual Developments of the Chinese Economy?

SSRN Electronic Journal
2007
  • 4
    Citations
  • 1,862
    Usage
  • 1
    Captures
  • 0
    Mentions
  • 0
    Social Media
Metric Options:   Counts1 Year3 Year

Metrics Details

  • Citations
    4
    • Citation Indexes
      3
    • Policy Citations
      1
      • Policy Citation
        1
  • Usage
    1,862
    • Abstract Views
      1,737
    • Downloads
      125
  • Captures
    1
    • Readers
      1
      • SSRN
        1
  • Ratings
    • Download Rank
      454,944

Article Description

This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector autoregressive models, each composed of one diffusion index and one real sector variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead. Similarly, principal components analysis, combining information from various diffusion indices, leads to enhanced forecasting performance. Our results indicate that Chinese business sentiment indicators convey useful information about current and future developments in the real economy. They also suggest that the official data provide a fairly accurate picture of the Chinese economy.

Bibliographic Details

Provide Feedback

Have ideas for a new metric? Would you like to see something else here?Let us know