Bets and Bids: Favorite-Longshot Bias and Winner's Curse
SSRN Electronic Journal
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Example: if you select the 1-year option for an article published in 2019 and a metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019. If you select the 3-year option for the same article published in 2019 and the metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019, 2018 and 2017.
Citation Benchmarking is provided by Scopus and SciVal and is different from the metrics context provided by PlumX Metrics.
Article Description
A well-documented anomaly in racetrack betting is that the expected return per dollar bet on a horse increases with the probability of the horse winning. This so-called favorite- longshot bias is at odds with the presumptions of market efficiency. We show that the bias is consistent with betters having myopic beliefs. If betters neglect the fact the popularity of a horse indicates that other people have favorable information about that horse, then they bet less on the favorite than they should. This myopia is related to, though stronger than, the judgmental bias that lead to the winner's curse in auctions.
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