Hoe tweederangs zijn lokale verkiezingen? Een analyse van de Nederlandse gemeenteraadsverkiezingen van 2010 en 1998 vanuit het perspectief van second-order elections. (Municipal Elections as Second-Order Elections. Assessing the Impact of National and Local Factors on the Vote-Shares for Parties in the Dutch Muncipal Elections of 1998 and 2010.)
SSRN Electronic Journal
2014
- 1,429Usage
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Article Description
Dutch Abstract: Politicologen hebben het fenomeen van de tweede-orde verkiezingen de afgelopen decennia uitgebreid bestudeerd met betrekking tot de Europese parlementsverkiezingen en regionale verkiezingen, maar hoegenaamd geen aandacht aan lokale verkiezingen besteed. Bovendien kijken ze daarbij voornamelijk naar de invloed van eerste orde factoren op resultaten in de tweede-orde arena. In dit artikel komen we aan beide tekortkomingen tegemoet door na te gaan in hoeverre nationale en lokale factoren invloed hebben gehad op de prestaties van landelijke partijen bij de gemeenteraadsverkiezingen van 2010. Onze analyses wijzen uit dat naast de bekende eerste-orde factoren regeringsdeelname en partijgrootte er ook significante effecten van lokale factoren bestaan. Partijen verliezen stemaandeel wanneer zij deel hebben uitgemaakt van het college en wanneer zij een of meer wethouders verloren hebben. Partijen verliezen daarnaast ook stemaandeel indien er nieuwe landelijke of lokale partijen aan de verkiezingen meedoen: het effect van nieuwe landelijke partijen is daarbij groter dan dat van nieuwe lokale partijen. Onze analyses laten zien dat het essentieel is om lokale, arena-specifieke factoren mee te nemen bij de analyse van tweede-orde verkiezingen. We bediscussieren onze resultaten in het licht van het debat over de nationalisering van de gemeenteraadsverkiezingen. English Abstract: Studies of second-order elections using aggregate data have predominantly focused on examining the extent to which European parliament elections and regional elections are dominated by the national, first-order arena, and paid scarce attention to the analysis of municipal elections. In addition the study of second-order elections is dominated by looking at the impact of first-order factors whilst ignoring the impact of arena-specific factors. This article addresses these shortcomings by analyzing the impact of national and local factors on the performance of national parties in the Dutch municipal elections of 2010. Our analysis shows that there are significant effects of local factors. Most parties lose votes when having been in local government and in some cases as well when having in addition lost an aldermen as a result of a political crisis. Parties also lose vote share as a result of the entrance of new national and local parties in a local election, with the effect of new national entrants being larger than that of new local entrants. Our analysis corroborates earlier findings that point to a dominance of national factors, while at the same time showing that it is vital to include local, arena specific factors in order to get to a better estimation of the second-orderness of non-national elections. We discuss our results in with respect to the recurring debate about the nationalisation of the Dutch municipal elections.
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