Rational Trend Followers and Contrarians in Excessively Volatile, Correlated Markets
SSRN Electronic Journal
2007
- 1Citations
- 9,929Usage
- 11Captures
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Example: if you select the 1-year option for an article published in 2019 and a metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019. If you select the 3-year option for the same article published in 2019 and the metric category shows 90%, that means that the article or review is performing better than 90% of the other articles/reviews published in that journal in 2019, 2018 and 2017.
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Article Description
This paper studies an overlapping generations model with multiple securities and heterogeneously informed agents. The model produces multiple equilibria, including highly volatile equilibria that can exhibit strong or weak correlations between asset returns - even when asset supplies and future dividends are uncorrelated across assets. Less informed agents rationally behave like trend-followers, while better informed agents follow contrarian strategies. Trading volume has a hump-shaped relation with information precision and is positively correlated with absolute price changes. Finally, accurate information increases the volatility and correlation of stock returns in the highly volatile, strongly correlated equilibrium.
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